The weekly survey of market expectations, REM, from the Central Bank anticipates a worsening of the inflation situation in Argentina, which once the April index is officially made public this week could represent 65% for the twelve months of 2022.
Market analysts anticipate a 65,1% CPI, for 2022, 5,9 points higher than the previous survey. In effect those who participated in the March REM forecasted a March CPI of 5,5%, but it proved to be higher, 6,7%. And for April estimates REM anticipate 5,6%, and 65,1% in twelve months.
REM also includes questions on inflation 2023 estimates, and the average for the twelve months was 50,5% and 43,7% in 2024
As to the US Dollar/Peso exchange rate, REM analysts expect 155 Pesos for a greenback by next December, equivalent to a 52,1% increase for the whole year. Likewise 226 Pesos by the end of 2023. This is the official rate since the black or blue market operates with a gap over the official rate that ranges from 75% to 100%.
As to the growth of the Argentine economy, the REM survey estimate GDP will expand 3,5% this year (0,3 percentage points higher than the previous survey)
As to the quarterly evolution of the economy, GDP in the first quarter reached 1,2%, which was 0,6 percentage points higher than the previous survey. The second quarter GDP fell to a 0,4 percentage points expansion, a contraction of 0,8 pp. While estimates for the third quarter estimate a contraction of 0,5 pp.
Interest rates on bank deposits are also expected to increase to 45,80% by December from 43,27% in April. The REM survey was done between April 27 and 29 with opinions from 28 economic consultants, domestic and international research centers and 14 financial institutions from Argentina, according to the release from the Argentine Central Bank.