Given more optimistic prospects for the supply of corn and wheat, Brazil's National Supply Company, Conab, increased, slightly, the estimate for the 2021/22 market year grain harvest. Overall this has meant that Brazil is expected to have a crop of 272.5 million tons of grains in the current season, 6.7% greater than the previous season.
The total area planted with grains should grow 5.8%, to 73.8 million hectares, while the average productivity of crops should increase 0.9%, to 3,693 kilograms per hectare.
With the second corn crop harvest in progress, Conab raised its production estimate by almost 500,000 tons compared to a month ago, and now forecasts 88.4 million tons. This volume represents an increase of 45.6% in production compared to the previous market year, driven by the improvement in productivity and the increase in planted area in the state of Paraná, Brazil’s Center-West region.
The cereal crop in 2021/22, including the previously harvested first crop, is now predicted to be 115.7 million tons, a 32.8% increase over the previous crop.
Conab also increased its estimate for the wheat harvest by some 700.000 tons to 9 million tons. Compared with 2020/21, it represents a 17.6% growth driven both by improved productivity (+10.3%) and increase in the sown area (+6.6%).
However for soybeans, flagship of Brazilian agribusiness, the production estimate was readjusted slightly downwards to 124 million tons, following the end of harvests in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Maranhão. Production dropped 10.2% compared to the previous crop, as La Niña impacted on productivity and yields.
Regarding estimates for rice and black beans, staple food of millions of Brazilians, crop volumes went up. For rice, the projection is now 10.8 million tons, but the forecast increase is still 8.2% lower than in the last farm year..With beans projection is now for over 3.1 million tons or a 7.5% increase.
Finally, Conab revised its estimate for the cotton lint harvest, with a crop expected to reach 2.8 million tons, which is still 18.2% higher than in the last farm year.