MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

IMF flags risks of outdated inflation metrics in fast-changing economies

The debate has gained momentum in Argentina after the government indefinitely postponed a new CPI methodology, a decision exposed following the resignation of INDEC chief Marco Lavagna

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is urging countries to modernize how they measure inflation and other key indicators, integrating point-of-sale and online data to reduce “blind spots” that, the institution argues, are widening as the economy becomes more digital and traditional surveys lose accuracy.

The debate has gained added relevance in Argentina after the government postponed—without a new date—the rollout of an updated Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, a move that became politically exposed following the resignation of then-INDEC chief Marco Lavagna amid tensions over the timing of statistical changes.

In a Finance & Development article, IMF economist Rebecca Riley argues that official measurement systems are lagging behind shifts in consumption patterns and business models. She warns that without reliable information, policymakers risk miscalibrating decisions—when to “step on the gas” in a downturn or when to “hit the brakes” to slow inflation.

A central recommendation is wider use of “scanner” or point-of-sale data: records generated by barcodes and checkout systems that capture prices actually paid, quantities and product substitution with more granularity than field collection. The IMF notes these inputs can improve the treatment of sales and promotions and, with appropriate statistical methods, replace some manually collected prices in CPI compilation.

Riley points to statistical agencies in the Netherlands, Australia and Canada gradually incorporating such sources into price indexes, alongside the growth of online price information to complement measurement. The IMF’s approach is not an immediate wholesale replacement of surveys, but a layered integration of sources to improve coverage and timeliness.

The Fund says the shift requires technical investment, private-sector data-sharing agreements and legal frameworks that protect confidentiality while allowing scrutiny. It also stresses the need to safeguard statistical independence and credibility so methodological choices are not distorted by short-term political incentives.

In Argentina, the government said it preferred to delay the update until disinflation was more firmly established, while analysts and market participants warned the episode could revive doubts about transparency in a country with a history of inflation-data disputes.