MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina awaits year's highest inflation reading as Caputo bets on “best 18 months”

The Central Bank's latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) yielded an average of 3%, though the top ten ranked analysts estimated 3.1%

Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on Monday that March inflation will exceed 3%, which would make it the highest monthly reading of 2026, hours before the national statistics agency INDEC is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, April 14, at 4:00 p.m.

“It will surely be above 3% because there was a shock that obviously had an impact on everything related to oil, from domestic airfares to transportation; there are also issues like education, which has its seasonality in March,” Caputo said during an event at the Rosario Stock Exchange before business leaders and financial sector representatives.

The minister's projection is in line with private estimates, which range from 2.7% to 3.5%. The Central Bank's latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) yielded an average of 3%, though the top ten ranked analysts estimated 3.1%. Core inflation — excluding regulated and seasonal prices — is projected at 2.9%.

If confirmed, March would mark an acceleration from the 2.9% recorded in both January and February, and would be the tenth consecutive month with the index above 2%. The first-quarter cumulative figure would stand at around 9.1%. The REM projects annual inflation of 29.1% for 2026, significantly above the government's official target of below 18%.

Despite the unfavorable figure, Caputo struck an emphatic tone about the outlook ahead. “Starting in April, a process of disinflation and growth is coming — the best months are ahead,” he said. “The best 18 months for Argentina in the last two decades are coming,” he added, describing a contrast between his team's optimism and public perception.

The minister attributed the first-quarter acceleration to the impact of the Middle East crisis on fuel prices and adjustments in regulated prices. Consulting firm C-P identified increases of roughly 4.7% in regulated prices during March, driven by fuel, electricity, transportation, tobacco and education. Food prices, however, showed some moderation: consultancy EcoGo recorded a 1.9% monthly increase in the category, with a slowdown in meat and a decline in vegetables.

Caputo also announced he would travel to Washington to attend the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Argentina maintains an active program with the IMF that includes reserve accumulation targets and fiscal adjustments.

President Javier Milei has maintained that monthly inflation will begin “with a zero” by July or August 2026, a projection that private analysts do not share. The market expects prices to remain above 2% monthly at least through the second quarter, with a possible deceleration to 1.5% monthly only in the second half of the year.