MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil grain harvest expected at 361.7 million tons, Conab, led by soybeans, corn and cotton

The record Brazil grain harvest is being driven mainly by gains in soybeans, corn and cotton. Rice, beans and wheat, by contrast, are expected to post declines

Brazil is expected to harvest a record 361.7 million metric tons of grains and fibers in the 2025/26 crop year, according to the latest estimate from Conab, the country’s food supply and crop agency.

 The figure marks a 2.6% increase from the previous season and is 0.3% above the August estimate. The revision reflects progress in the second corn crop harvest, where yields have come in above expectations.

The record Brazil grain harvest is being driven mainly by gains in soybeans, corn and cotton. Rice, beans and wheat, by contrast, are expected to post declines from the previous cycle.

Brazil’s planted area grew 1.7% from 2024/25, reaching 83.5 million hectares. The largest increases came from soybeans, which added 1.3 million hectares, or 2.7%; corn, up 762,500 hectares, or 3.5%; and sorghum, whose planted area rose 32.9%, adding 537,000 hectares.

Soybeans, Brazil’s flagship crop and one of the country’s main export products, are projected at 180.4 million metric tons, the highest output ever recorded in Conab’s monitoring series.

The volume represents a 5.2% increase from the previous cycle, supported by a 2.7% expansion in planted area and a 2.5% gain in yields. Soybean exports are also expected to reach a record, with shipments projected at 116.2 million metric tons.

Regarding the corn crop it has been estimate at 144 million metric tons, up 2% from the previous season. The first corn crop registered a record yield of 7,191 kg per hectare, an 8.8% increase, while the second crop is projected at 112.1 million metric tons, just 1% below the previous record.

The third corn crop, however, is expected to fall 20.1% to 2.39 million metric tons.

Cotton production is forecast at 4.14 million metric tons in the 2025/26 cycle, the highest volume in the historical series. Even with a 3.2% decline in planted area, estimated at 2.02 million hectares, crop productivity is expected to rise 4.9%, reaching a record 2,053 kg of lint per hectare.

Output is forecast 1.5% above the 2024/25 result and 1.4% higher than Conab’s August estimate.

Among the crops expected to decline, bean production is estimated at 2.95 million metric tons, confirming a 3.6% drop from the previous season.

Brazil’s rice crop is also expected to be smaller, with production estimated at 11.08 million metric tons in 2025/26, down 13.2% from the previous cycle.

Among winter crops, wheat production is expected to reach 5.74 million metric tons in 2025/26, down 27.1% from the previous cycle. The decline reflects a 21.2% reduction in planted area and lower average yields, which are estimated at 2,978 kg per hectare, down 7.5%.

With domestic supply falling, wheat imports are forecast at 7.06 million metric tons, most of which to be supplied by Argentina.