Developing nations warned the IMF on Thursday against imposing new rules dictating how they manage capital inflows rushing into their economies, suggesting rich nations take a hard look at their own policies instead.
Latin America and the Caribbean have weathered the 2008-2009 recession much better than it had previous downturns. However less well-known is that the region, particularly Mercosur members, also decisively outperformed many other regions during the same period with a decline in growth smaller than that of the middle-income country average and with a rebound that was swifter and stronger.
Oil prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future and IMF economists say that governments should be looking to back sustainable alternative sources of energy.
Uruguay’s growth estimate for this year remains at 5% but is forecasted at 4.2% for 2012 with warnings on the economy’s over-heating, significant inflow of capital and inflation, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook released this week. In 2010 the Uruguayan economy expanded 8.5%.
The outlook for government debts and deficits in 2011 is a mixed bag, with most advanced economies reining in fiscal deficits, but not fast enough to keep their debt from rising. Fiscal balances are improving in most emerging economies, and some could do more as they experience a windfall from high commodity prices and strong capital flows.
Inflation risks are building in all Latin American countries except Mexico, where price gains are low and economic expansion should outpace Brazil this year, according to the the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook.
The IMF has presented a report to Argentine authorities with specific recommendations for developing a new, nationwide consumer price index to replace the much-criticized current index, the fund said in a press release Monday.
Strong demand in Brazil and Latin America has created the conditions for a stronger-than-expected economic rebound in Argentina, an IMF official said on Monday.
The global economic recovery is gaining strength, with world growth projected at about 4½ percent in both 2011 and 2012, but unemployment remains high, and risks of overheating are building in emerging market economies, the IMF said in its latest forecast.
Brazil unveiled Wednesday the latest effort to stem a flood of foreign capital that is driving the local currency sky-high and undermining the competitiveness of the country’s exports. Finance Minister Guido Mantega blamed the currency woes on the Federal Reserve policy that keeps US interest rates near zero.