World cereal production for 2016 should amount to 2 571 million tonnes, up marginally from FAO's October forecast and 1.5% above the 2015 output. The updated figure, released Monday in the Cereal and Supply Demand Brief, reflects a substantial upgrade of the outlook for world wheat production, which is now expected to rise to 746.7 million tonnes, a 4.3 million increase from FAO's October forecast.
For a third year in a row the United States will be the top wheat supplier for Brazil, displacing Argentina from its historic position, according to the latest release from Brazilian consultancy Trigo & Farinhas. This piece of information is significant given the world prices for grains and wheat planting prospects in South America.
In the last few days the Argentine news media has been focusing on the fact that there does not seem to be enough wheat or corn to go around, which is driving prices higher and causing concern for the users of these grains. This is particularly true for bakeries which have been forced to charge soaring prices for bread.
Argentina is on track to harvest more wheat this season as greater acreage and coming warm weather should offset any yield loss caused by recent frosts that hit in the last days of the Southern Hemisphere winter.
World total cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7% in 2013 compared to last year, helping to replenish global inventories and raise expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14, according to the latest issue of FAO quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation.
Argentina’s 2012/2013 grain and oilseed crop reached a record 105 million tons, announced President Cristina Fernandez underlining the excellent performance of the maize harvest and yields.
Argentina Domestic Commerce Secretary, Guillermo Moreno has given mills and exporters until Friday to normalize the wheat market which has been under stress with bread prices doubling in the last month, and farmers’ complaining about the worst harvest in decades because of government policies.
Argentina will plant more wheat this season than last year because of farmer-friendly adjustments to the government’s export policy and the bad luck that growers had last season with alternative crops such as barley, a key grain exchange said.
First forecasts for the 2013 wheat harvest point to production increasing to 690 million tons, 4.3% up on 2012. This would be the second largest crop on record, according to the latest issue of FAO quarterly “Crop Prospects and Food Situation” report. The production hike is expected mostly in Europe, driven by increased plantings in response to high prices and a recovery in yields in some countries, notably the Russian Federation.
Christmas rainstorms across Argentina further delayed soy and corn planting, keeping markets guessing about whether the grains powerhouse can produce enough this season to help bring high-flying global food prices down to earth.