Given more optimistic prospects for the supply of corn and wheat, Brazil's National Supply Company, Conab, increased, slightly, the estimate for the 2021/22 market year grain harvest. Overall this has meant that Brazil is expected to have a crop of 272.5 million tons of grains in the current season, 6.7% greater than the previous season.
Drought is causing havoc in Argentina and Paraguay. Argentina’s wheat crop for the 2022/23 season is the most delayed in a decade, as a period of lack of rainfall and early frosts is forcing farmers to delay planting the winter crop.
Brazil, among the largest wheat importers in the world, --mainly from Mercosur associates--, is breaking consecutive export records in 2022. In less than six months, until June 20, Brazil exported more than twice as much wheat as in 2021, that is 2.5 million tons vis-a-vis 1.12 million tons in the whole year.
The intense heat wave in India which has turned out to be the hottest spring in the last one hundred years is having its impact on people, fauna and agriculture. Thermometers recording 50 degrees centigrade, and the lack of water, has forced the government in New Delhi to halt all wheat exports, in anticipation of any shortages that could lead to extreme situations.
Because of forecasted dry weather the Rosario Grains Exchange anticipates a lesser wheat crop in Argentina for the 2022/23 season. The Exchange projects Argentine wheat production to decline to 19 million tons, down from a record the 22.1 million tons in 2021-22, as a La Niña weather pattern is expected to reduce rainfall in the coming months.
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro Thursday said his country faced a food security threat as a consequence of the shortage of wheat, which could become scarce due to the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
As a result of the Russian invasion, Ukraine's agricultural minister Roman Leshchenko said he expects his country's spring crop area may be halved this year to only 7 million hectares.
Brazil is working to reduce its dependence on foreign produce and hopes to take advantage of recent record exports to increase crops this year. In effect from December 2021 to March 2022, Brazil exported some 2.5 million tons of wheat, an unprecedented volume that benefited from a historically large harvest and, more recently, from additional demand generated by the war between wheat exporters Ukraine and Russia.
The prolongation of a workers' strike in the ports of Argentina may disrupt wheat millers' operations in Brazil, especially if the labor action is not called off before the end of the year, industry representatives were quoted in the Brazilian media.
Wheat prices fell after Australia forecast its second-highest crop ever and Russia proposed curtailing grain exports next year. Wheat futures fell as much as 3.3% in Chicago trading, the lowest for the contract in almost eight weeks. Corn and soybeans also fell following rainfall in South America during the weekend.