MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina's strategist defies the odds

Eduardo Duhalde says he is playing out the last moves of the most important chess game of his life. By the looks of things, Argentina's outgoing president is winning comfortably.

Growth has returned after a four-year absence, inflation is in single digits, and banking restrictions have finally been lifted.

On Thursday the president had even more good news: the World Bank has just approved a $500m (?427m, £305m) credit, and he claims the International Monetary Fund plans to approve the second revision of the current interim agreement. .

"I am extremely happy," he told in his last interview with the international press before leaving office on Sunday. .

The president's metaphor is hardly gratuitous. Mr Duhalde, a swarthy, diminutive figure who looks younger than his 61 years, is a keen player who sees politics through the prism of chess. .

"The discipline that chess imposes on you makes you think differently. You are constantly calculating what moves you can make and how to answer [your opponent's] moves." .

Such careful planning and foresight - Mr Duhalde modestly claims that in politics, as in chess, he sees only about four or five moves ahead - have kept him in power against all the odds. .

When Congress elected Mr Duhalde to take over in January 2002 the country was a small step away from anarchy. The previous administration had just announced the biggest sovereign default in history, Argentines had lost all faith in their politicians, and rioting had turned Buenos Aires into a virtual war zone. .

Mr Duhalde was the country's fifth leader in 10 days; most thought he would be gone within a week. .

So did Mr Duhalde, who warned his wife that their stay in the presidential palace would probably be brief. "I felt as if I was putting my head in the guillotine," he recalled. .

Many continue to blame him for Argentina's problems - in particular those stemming from his decision last year to devalue the peso after its decade-long peg to the dollar. Mr Duhalde's controversial "asymmetric pesification" converted bank deposits and loans at different rates - devastating the banks and violating private contracts. .

Today Mr Duhalde defends his decision. "It wasn't perfect, but nothing could be in such circumstances," he said. "We had to avoid hyperinflation and we did that. Everyone suffered from the resulting legal instability, but that is something we have had to sort out gradually. It would have been fatal to try in one go." .

Mr Duhalde has said he now intends to exit top-level politics. Few believe him. After all, the last few months have shown him to be a master strategist. .

After announcing presidential elections for April, Mr Duhalde frustrated primaries within his Peronist party, denying Carlos Menem, his arch-rival, an assured victory and a third presidential term. The plan split the vote and allowed Néstor Kirchner, then a little-known politician from Argentina's remote, icy south, to break through the field. .

With his favourite candidate now installed - Mr Kirchner this week decided to keep four out of 11 members of the present cabinet, ensuring Mr Duhalde's continuing influence - many expect Mr Duhalde to return in 2007. .

He curtly dismisses such ideas: "My return would be terrible for Argentina." .

He says he is part of an old guard that has done immense harm to Argentina over the last 25 years. "We have to give way to a new generation with new ideas," he said. .

"Our entire legal system is European but our constitution is Anglo-Saxon," he added. "It is no good to us." .

Mr Duhalde believes the presidential system has failed Latin America and that, in the long run, the region should move towards a parliamentary system. But as for his immediate plans: "I told Lula [Brazil's new president, who will be at Mr Kirchner's inauguration] to reserve two seats on his plane back to Brazil. I thought I would save on the airfare."