MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Chávez opponents in move to trigger referendum.

Opponents of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's president, are due to begin a four-day drive today Friday to collect at least 2.4m signatures to trigger a recall referendum on Mr Chávez's rule.

Under the watchful eye of international observers from the Organisation of American States (OAS), including César Gaviria, secretary-general, and the Carter Center, the Atlanta-based pro-democracy foundation, opposition leaders expect to collect as many as 4m signatures.

That would significantly exceed the 2.4m threshold that would require the authorities to organise a recall ballot that asks the electorate whether Mr Chávez's mandate, due to finish in 2007, should be terminated early.

If Mr Chávez were to leave office as a result of a recall vote, which analysts say would be likely to be held in April, elections would have to be held 30 days later to select a leader to govern the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.

"We have 96 hours in which to start the process that will remove this government through the simple act of signing a petition," said Enrique Mendoza, an opposition governor who is seen as a potential presidential candidate.

Venezuela has been on a political roller-coaster during the past two years, as Mr Chávez's self-styled "Bolivarian Revolution" has collided repeatedly with his conservative opponents, who organised a failed coup in April 2002 and then a disastrous two-month strike that began last December that plunged the country deeper into poverty.

The notion of organising petitions for recall elections has proved popular across the political spectrum. Government supporters were due on Thursday to deliver more than 4m signatures they claim to have collected last weekend in an effort to trigger recall referendums on 38 opposition deputies in the National Assembly.

Mr Gaviria praised the government-led petition effort as a "great demonstration of civility" and said he hoped this weekend's opposition-run event "will take place in the same organised manner".

If the government is able to depose several opposition deputies, the balance of power in the legislature - where it holds a thin majority - could tilt in its favour, allowing it to pass laws that could stack the courts with Mr Chávez's allies.

This could make it easy for the government to challenge the presidential referendum on jumped-up legal technicalities if it goes against Mr Chávez.

Mr Chávez frequently attacks his opponents as "oligarchic" lay-abouts who want nothing more than a return to the cosy, bipartisan political spoils system that he says enriched the few and marginalised the many.

Opinion polls suggest 60 per cent of Venezuelans would vote to remove Mr Chávez, who some see as a wild, would-be dictator bent on a converting the country into a Cuban-style authoritarian state.

But there are doubts over the opposition's ability to collect as many signatures this weekend as it claims, in the face of a concerted campaign by the government to boost its support base among the majority poor.

Mr Chávez has ordered his followers to fan out across the country on "missions", appealing to citizens to sign up for micro-credits, grants and public-sector jobs - provided they pledge not to sign the presidential referendum petition.

But despite such efforts, analysts say Mr Chávez may now have little choice but to face the test of public opinion at the ballot box to stay in power.

"All rulers, democratic or authoritarian, depend on legitimacy for survival," says Seth Antiles, Venezuela analyst at Citigroup. "Chávez has no alternative but to allow the referendum to go forward or face a collapse in legitimacy."