MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

FAO estimates record global cereal production in 2025/2026

With cereal production expected to exceed utilization, world cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 1.0 percent in 2025/26 to 873.6 million tons

FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, forecasting a record global cereal production of 2 911 million tons in 2025, up 2.1 percent from 2024. World cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.8 percent in 2025/26, reaching 2 898 million tons.

Global food consumption of cereals is predicted to grow by 0.9 percent, while feed use is forecast to expand by 0.5 percent. With cereal production expected to exceed utilization, world cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 1.0 percent in 2025/26 to 873.6 million tons, partially recovering from their contraction in the previous year. Based on the current forecasts, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio should remain broadly stable at 29.8 percent.

Global cereal trade is also predicted to rebound by by 1.9 percent in 2025/26 to 487.1 million tonnes, with a 3.8 percent growth in wheat trade expected to offset a 0.7 percent contraction for rice.

The Brief has also updated the estimated production, stocks and trade figures for the 2024/25 marketing season.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday. In addition to the regular market analysis, the new issue features an article on the impact of climate factors on maize yields around the world, emphasizing the importance of regional analysis. It notes significant weather-related yield variations in Eastern Europe, India and Southern Africa, while yields are more stable in China and the United States of America, which together account for half of global maize production.