MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

FAO expects world cereal output and trade projected to decline in year ahead

World cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.6% in 2026/2027, slowing down from the 2.7% pace recorded in the previous season

World cereal production in the 2026/27 season is expected to drop by 2 percent year on year to 2 982 million tons, led by declining wheat harvests, according to FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released in late May.

The expected decline follows a 6.1 percent increase in 2025/26 to a record 3 043 million tons, with the marketing season coming to an end. This robust growth led to an estimated 9.5 percent increase in global cereals stocks.

World cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.6% in 2026/2027, slowing down from the 2.7% pace recorded in the previous season. Based on current forecasts, world cereal stocks are predicted to contract slightly, by 0.3%, due mostly to lower anticipated rice inventories, leaving the global cereal stock-to-use ratio, at 31.7 percent, close to its earlier level.

After expanding by 4.8 percent in 2025/26, global cereal trade is predicted to decline by 0.3 percent to 507.2 million tons in the year ahead, as expected lower wheat and barley traded volumes more than offset foreseen increases in maize and rice shipments.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monthly which offers insights into how the global bulk freight landscape is being reshaped by the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and reviews how some countries are responding to higher energy and fertilizer costs.