The International Monetary Fund said today that it now expects Latin America's economy to shrink 0.3% this year instead of growing 0.5%, largely due to a steep recession in Brazil and slumping commodity prices. It would be the first recession for the Latin American and Caribbean region since 2009.
The International Monetary Fund sharply lowered its growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 0.5% in 2015 and 1.7% next year, citing lower commodity prices and China's transition to a new growth model. The figures are down from the IMF's April projections for 0.9% growth this year and 2% next year.
A new World Bank Group report, “Shared Prosperity and Poverty Eradication in Latin America and the Caribbean”, explores the performance of eight countries to understand what has driven progress, and what it will take to sustain it.
Latin America and the Caribbean's economic growth might recover modestly to 2.2% in 2015, up from 1.3% in 2014, its lowest rate since last decade's global financial crisis. Despite the slowdown, the region has managed to maintain its gains against poverty, said Inter-American Development Bank President Luis Alberto Moreno.
Exports from Latin America will drop by about 1.4% in 2014, the first decline in exports since the collapse of international commerce during the 2009 financial crisis, according to a study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Latin America faces a rocky road ahead despite social and economic achievements in recent years, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde. Among the achievements in the last two decades and in most nations, Ms Lagarde mentioned low inflation, fiscal discipline, and financial stability.
Venezuela will almost certainly default on its foreign debt, according to Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. They add that the beleaguered Latin American economy has already defaulted on every conceivable kind of domestic debt.
The economic scenario for 2014, with an estimated average growth rate of 2.7%, is far from encouraging for the evolution of the Latin American regional labor market and presents major challenges for labor market policy, said the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labor Organization (ILO) in a new joint report released this week.
IMF Director for the Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner has once again called on Latin America to embark upon economic reforms, claiming that the “least difficult” phase of economic growth is now over.
The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, released on Thursday in Lima, Peru, projects regional growth of 2½ percent in 2014, down from 2¾ percent in 2013. Weak investment and subdued demand for the region’s exports held back activity in 2013, as did increasingly binding supply bottlenecks in a number of economies. For 2015, the IMF projects a modest pickup, to 3%.