MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Toledo set to repeat in Peru, but ex mayor Castañeda can still give surprise

Former president Alejandro Toledo

Former Peruvian president Alejandro Toledo continues to lead public opinion polls for the April 10 presidential election followed in a tight race by Congress member Keiko Fujimori and the ex mayor of Lima, Luis Castañeda.

According to “Analistas & Consultores”, business friendly Toledo has a vote intention of 30.5% followed by Castañeda with 20.8% and 19% for Ms Fujimori. Ultra nationalist hopeful Ollanta Humala and liberal Pedro Pablo Kuczynski have 9.2% and 5.5% respectively.

A previous poll from IMA has Toledo with 36.5% while Ms Fujimori has the support of 20.7% and Castañeda, 19.9%; Humala and Kuczynski, 11% and 4.4%.

The polls the first to be published following an aborted attempt by the National Elections Board to restrict polling by demanding the interviewed provide their personal data, show that the main tendencies recorded by pollsters remain with a minimum variation in percentages.

In practical terms this means all polls coincide that Toledo is set to win comfortably the first round, but since he won’t reach the 50% milestone, there will be a runoff be it with populist Castañeda or Ms Fujimori, daughter of the former president Alberto Fujimori who has been sentenced to 25 years in jail for human rights abuses.

This is crucial since all polls also indicate that Ms Fujimori would not be a match for Toledo in the run-off but with Castañeda it would be a technical tie.