MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Poll projects dead heat between Fujimori and Sánchez in Peru runoff as count nears completion

With 95.89% of ballots processed by the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), Fujimori leads with 17.06% of valid votes, Sánchez stands second with 12.05%

Right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori and left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez would tie at 38% of the vote in the Peruvian presidential runoff scheduled for June 7, according to the first opinion poll published after the April 12 election, against a backdrop of an inconclusive count and an ongoing dispute over second place. The Ipsos Peru survey, conducted between April 23 and 24 and published by daily Perú.21, points to a scenario of absolute parity with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The poll also reveals a high level of rejection: 17% of respondents said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot, while another 7% remain undecided. The combined 24% of the electorate anticipates a runoff that may be defined more by the so-called “anti-vote” than by positive support, a recurring dynamic in Peruvian politics in recent years. Ipsos head of public opinion studies Guillermo Loli warned that voter preferences will depend on each candidate's ability to attract those who did not back them in the first round.

The survey also outlines an alternative scenario. Should far-right candidate Rafael López Aliaga overcome the 24,017-vote gap that separates him from Sánchez in the official count, the picture would change substantially: López Aliaga would stand at 34%, Fujimori would drop to 31%, and the blank or null vote would rise to 27%. That hypothesis depends on the resolution of contested ballots, a process still underway and expected to conclude in the coming days.

With 95.89% of ballots processed by the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), Fujimori leads with 17.06% of valid votes, Sánchez stands second with 12.05%, and López Aliaga remains third with 11.89%. Some 3,811 ballots are still to be sent to the Special Electoral Juries (JEE), the bodies tasked with resolving observations detected on election day. The process, marked by logistical delays and by the resignation of ONPE chief Piero Corvetto, has extended uncertainty for more than two weeks.

López Aliaga has alleged electoral fraud without producing evidence and has demanded the annulment of thousands of votes, a stance that has heightened political tensions and was dismissed by the European Union observation mission, which found no evidence of systemic irregularities. The Organization of American States endorsed the electoral authorities' decision to continue the process and called for respect for the popular will. The slow pace of the count and the cross allegations form part of a sequence of institutional crises that has shaped Peruvian politics in recent years, with five presidents in five years and persistent public distrust of the political leadership.