Brazil’s government on Thursday revised its 2020 fiscal outlook, forecasting significantly higher debt and wider deficits due to the COVID-19 crisis, and said it will be over a decade before public debt falls back to last year’s level.
Brazil's interim president announced austerity measures on Tuesday aimed at pulling Latin America's largest economy from its worst crisis in decades, warning that a failure to act would sentence future generations to “extraordinary hardship.” Speaking with government leaders in a national televised meeting, interim president Michel Temer, 75, also banged his hand on the table while insisting he was up to the job.
Analysts expect Brazil's economy to contract by 3.21% this year, with the outlook worsening from last week, the Central Bank said this week. Seven days ago analysts said they expected Brazil's economy to contract by 3.01% in 2016.
Brazil posted a primary budget deficit in 2015 of 111.25 billion Reais (roughly $27.29 billion), the biggest since the data series began in 2001, the Central Bank said on Friday. The primary budget deficit (before interest payments), equivalent to 1.88% of GDP, was more than triple the primary budget gap in 2014 (32.5 billion reais, or 0.57% of GDP).
Analysts expect Brazil's economy to contract by 2.95% this year after contracting by 3.71% in 2015, marking the biggest drop in economic output in 25 years, the Central Bank said on Monday. The first survey of analysts released this year shows that private sector economists expect the inflation rate to hit 6.87% in 2016.
Brazil's industrial output fell for a fourth straight month in September as automakers, metal producers and other manufacturers were hit by a worsening recession, government data showed on Wednesday. This follows the Brazilian central bank's announcement on Tuesday that the economy in 2015 would shrink over 3% with inflation almost at 10%.
Brazil has given up on its goal of seeking a primary budget surplus this year and instead will record a massive shortfall as a deepening economic and political crisis drags on revenues, presidential chief of staff Jaques Wagner said on Thursday. Brazil's overall budget deficit has soared to 9% of GDP, according to estimates.
Analysts expect Brazil's economy to contract by 2.06% this year, with the inflation rate coming in at 9.29%, the Central Bank said Monday. GDP estimates come from the Boletin Focus, a weekly Central Bank survey of analysts from about 100 private financial institutions on the state of the national economy.
Brazil's annual inflation rate climbed to 9.56% in July, the highest level since 2003, official data showed Friday. Prices are being driven higher by the rising cost of electricity -- up 57.8% in the past 12 months -- as well as increasingly expensive housing, food and beverages, and health care.
Brazil's debt levels will continue to increase through 2016 and remain high despite the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, potentially weakening the sovereign's credit profile, says Moody's Investors Service.