Economists again cut their outlook for Brazil's economic performance for this year, as consumer and business confidence continue at historic low levels. Brazil's GDP is expected to contract 2.85% this year, according to a weekly central-bank survey of 100 economists, compared with expectations last week for a contraction of 2.80%.
Brazil's central bank halted one of the world's boldest rate-hiking cycles on Wednesday, taking pressure off an economy struggling with recession even amid concerns that a looming budget crisis could stoke inflation.
The Brazilian currency Real lost 1% at the end of trading on Friday and begins this week at 3.42 Reais to the US dollar, the lowest in twelve years, because of the political and economic uncertainties surrounding Latin America's largest economy.
Brazil raised interest rates to the highest levels in more than six years on Wednesday, extending a tightening campaign and leaving the door open for more hikes despite concerns that steep borrowing costs could deepen an expected economic recession.
Brazil's central bank expects inflation to run above the official target this year and next, despite months of monetary tightening, signaling policymakers could maintain an aggressive pace of interest-rate hikes to lower stubborn prices. In the minutes of its April 29 rate-setting meeting, the bank said it would remain vigilant to ease persistently high inflation.
Financial experts expect Brazil's economy to shrink 0.83% in 2015, its biggest contraction since 1990, and inflation to climb to 8.12%, its highest level since 2003, according to the results of a Central Bank survey released on Monday.
Brazil's Central Bank appears likely to continue raising interest rates in the short-term, saying in its most recent meeting that its inflation-fighting effort in recent months has been insufficiently effective. The view was reflected in the minutes, published on Thursday, of its monetary policy committee's March 4 meeting, when the bank raised its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50 basis points to 12.75%.
Brazil's central bank raised interest rates to a more than three-year high on Wednesday, maintaining an aggressive pace of monetary tightening to contain high inflation, help the economy back on its tracks and win investors disillusioned with the once-booming economy.
Brazil's central bank is expected to raise interest rates for a third straight meeting this week to quell any doubts about its commitment to ending years of high inflation.
In a surprise move and in divided vote (5 to 3), Brazil's central bank monetary board, Copom, decided to raise its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 11.25%. A majority of economists and analysts anticipated that the bank would opt to keep rates unchanged.