Brazil shipped 4.1 million tons of soybeans to China in August, down 40% year on year, according to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade of Brazil, or Secex. Though Secex didn’t provide any reason for the sharp drop, but trade sources cited rising competition from Argentina and African swine fever among the reasons for the decline.
Argentine farmers, anxious about an increasingly murky political outlook and economic turmoil, are turning toward soy over more expensive corn to cut costs, a shift that could impact next season’s harvest in one of the world’s top grain exporters.
The area in Brazil to be planted with soybeans in the 2019-20 season, which starts this month, will grow by the slowest pace in 13 years as a global trade war and swine fever in China cloud the outlook for farmers, according to analysts at AgRural.
The soybean harvest in Argentina for the 2018-19 crop year is almost complete, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The forecast for total production was the second-highest in 19 years at 56 million mt, up 48% year on year due to a better than expected yield of 3.35 mt/hectare, BAGE said.
A Brazilian grain growers association has launched a hot line to encourage farmers to report practices on the part of Germany’s Bayer SA that potentially could be anti-competitive, according to statement sent to Reuters on Tuesday.
Brazilian soy exports to China will definitely decline this year as African swine fever in the world’s No. 2 economy cuts demand for the animal feed, but potential growth in meat exports would offset this, Brazil’s agriculture minister said on Monday.
Argentina's soy harvest has progressed at a brisk pace over recent days, showing excellent yields that could push the crop higher than the currently forecast 53 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report last week.
Soybean growers in Argentina are playing a waiting game, wagering on better prices ahead as the U.S. and China inch toward a trade deal and as nation’s currency keeps depreciating. Farmers on the Pampas arable belt have signed delayed-price contracts for almost three quarters of the 12.2 million metric tons they’ve sold to crushers and exporters so far, according to government data. That compares with 60% at the same stage last year.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to come in 14-18% down on the year in 2019 due to lower production and reduced buying by China, industry reports showed.
Brazil and China are expected to hold their first high-level political and economic talks since 2015 later this year, Brazil’s agriculture trade secretary said on Thursday, in a move likely to boost farm trade between the two countries.