Brazil is poised to export more corn than soybeans for the first time in a year this January, although sales of the oilseed remain high for the period, according to government and shipping data.
Analysts are casting doubt on the Brazilian government’s soybean production estimate. Conab, the government’s food supply and statistics agency, recently issued a forecast for 118.8 million tons of production, only slightly smaller than last year’s record 119.4 million tons.
Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop forecast was cut to 116.9 million tons on Wednesday from 121.4 million tons late in November, said consultancy AgRural, blaming extreme heat and a dry spell in southern areas for the smaller projection.
Estimates of corn and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina remain unchanged from private analytics IEG vantage last monthly report. The firm projected Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop at 122 million tons and Argentina’s crop at 56.5 million tons.
Rainstorms are sweeping Argentina’s soy belt, building soil moisture needed to guarantee good yields when crops blossom in February and providing some cushion for China to buy should its trade war with the United States continue to limit U.S. supplies.
Brazil is prepared in the event China removes tariffs on U.S. soy, which had driven down prices for the oilseed in Chicago and driven up the premiums over U.S. prices paid for Brazilian beans, outgoing Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi said on Friday.
The United States government officials on Thursday hailed China's first meager purchase of U.S. soybeans since its trade war with the United States began in July and said they hoped for, but could not guarantee, more to come.
Brazil's Mato Grosso farmers are happy about their soybean planting progress this year, as they have finished sowing almost 90% of their soybean acres and are expecting an early harvest at the end of December.
The world of soybean shipping has turned upside down thanks to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Argentina, the No. 3 global soy grower, is making major purchases of U.S. supplies. A weekly measure of US shipments to Argentina just rose to the highest in at least 35 years, U.S. government data showed Tuesday.
Brazil, the world's No 1 soy exporter, is expected to import around one million tons of the oilseed in coming months from its largest global competitor, the United States, as local supplies dwindle, according to Sao Paulo-based grain trader Agribrasil.