Analysts expect Brazil's economy to contract by 3.62% this year, with inflation hitting 10.61%, the Central Bank said Monday. GDP and inflation estimates come from the Boletin Focus, a weekly Central Bank survey of analysts from about 100 private financial institutions on the state of the national economy.
Economic activity in Brazil contracted for the fourth straight quarter, central bank data showed this week as Latin America's biggest economy plunges further into recession. The bank's IBC-Br economic activity index indicates economic activity fell 1.41% in the third quarter from the previous three months.
Brazil's annual inflation rate accelerated in October to just below 10%, the highest reading in almost 12 years, after sharp fuel and food price hikes. Consumer prices, as measured by the benchmark IPCA index, rose 9.93% in 12 months through October, up from 9.49% in September, statistics agency IBGE said in a release. In the first ten months of the year inflation reached 8.52%
The Brazilian central bank will take the necessary measures to bring inflation back to the 4.5% target in 2017, bank director Altamir Lopes, said on Thursday. It is the first time the bank has given a timeframe for reaching the center of its official target range after it dropped its outlook to meet this goal late 2016 due to a weaker Brazilian currency.
Brazil's central bank kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday, for a second straight month despite a jump in inflation expectations. The decision not to raise rates will give a breather to President Dilma Rousseff, who is fighting for her political survival amid the country's worst economic and political crisis in 25 years.
Brazil's annual inflation rate climbed to 9.56% in July, the highest level since 2003, official data showed Friday. Prices are being driven higher by the rising cost of electricity -- up 57.8% in the past 12 months -- as well as increasingly expensive housing, food and beverages, and health care.
Brazil's inflation was little changed at 0.79% in June, rising to 8.89% over the last 12, reported the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, IBGE, on Wednesday. May's rate was 0.74%. Main price rises accounting for a third of June's inflation included 29.19% for plane tickets, 4.95% in water taxes and gambling rates, officials said.
The Brazilian Central Bank on Wednesday raised its inflation estimate for 2015 to 9%, or almost double the midpoint in the official range and well above the 6.5% top end target, and said the economy may contract by 1.1% this year, marking the worst performance since 1990.
Brazil's central bank expects inflation to run above the official target this year and next, despite months of monetary tightening, signaling policymakers could maintain an aggressive pace of interest-rate hikes to lower stubborn prices. In the minutes of its April 29 rate-setting meeting, the bank said it would remain vigilant to ease persistently high inflation.
Analysts have reviewed negatively Brazil's 2015 inflation and growth forecasts, according to the latest Focus report from the Central Bank, released on Monday. The survey which includes 100 analysts from private financial institutions on the state of the economy anticipates inflation of 8.25% and 1.1% contraction of GDP by the end of the year.