Inflation in Argentina during the current month of August could drop to 0.7% because of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the hikes in natural gas prices for residential users, according to the official stats office Indec. Similar stats also indicate a strong contraction of the Argentine economy.
Argentina’s annual rate of inflation was likely to have reached an annualized 42% through May, but should begin to slow in June with a return to growth also on the horizon, Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay said in an address to investors in New York. The minister also said that for Argentina, Brazil's recession had a greater impact than Brexit.
Argentina's GDP is expected to contract by about 1% in 2016, according to the latest IMF Regional Economic Outlook; Western Hemisphere, announced on Wednesday in Mexico. The chapter on Argentina makes a special mention of the new government's changes to remove macroeconomic imbalances.
Argentina Finance Minister Alfonso Prat Gay revealed on Wednesday that the fiscal deficit registered in 2015 was of 5.8% of GDP and 7.1% of GDP is all debts are computed, and complained that “there has been wasteful spending and when there is an expense it’s not well done.”
Argentina's Finance Minister Alfonso Prat Gay said on Thursday that the first day in the market without the dollar restrictions imposed by the previous administration, had been positive and as they had planned or expected. Compared to the previous multi-tier system, the dollar appreciated in the range of 25% against the Peso in the unified market.
Brazilian banks which follow closely events in Argentina and prospects of the new government under president Mauricio Macri, believe the official exchange rate of 9.67 Pesos to the dollar will inevitably have to be devalued, to 12 Pesos by the end of the year, which means a 24% depreciation.
Argentina will likely end the year with a fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said on Wednesday, rejecting estimates by the opposition for a deficit around twice as high.
Economic activity in Argentina has increased 2.2% in May, compared to the same month of 2014, according to the country's stats office, Indec. Compared to April this year, economic activity has grown 0.8%, the Monthly Economic Activity Index revealed.
The World Bank is optimistic about the outlook for the Argentine economy, predicting the country’s GDP will grow 1.1% this year, a considerable upgrade from the decline of 0.3% it expected in January, and perhaps even stronger growth of 1.8% in 2016 and of 3% points in 2017, thanks to a “stronger” macroeconomic environment and “regained” access to international capital markets.
Economist Aldo Ferrer has said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was “incorrigible”, questioning the report the multilateral credit organism released this week saying Argentina should devalue on its peso currency and carry out austerity policies to get back on the track of growth.