By Kenneth Rogoff
Markets nowadays are fixated on how high the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted: the real concern ought to be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession. Given that the Fed may struggle just to get its base interest rate up to 2% over the coming year, there will be very little room to cut if a recession hits.
The US economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, initial figures have indicated. The world's largest economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the three months to September, the Commerce Department said. Analysts had predicted growth of just 2.5%.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said a rising tide of opposition to international trade and integration threatens global growth. Global trade this year will grow at the slowest pace since 2007, according to the World Trade Organization.
North American stock markets rallied today after a U.S. Federal Reserve official hinted that the central bank remains cautious about interest rate hikes. Fed governor Lael Brainard said the risk with raising rates too soon is that it could damage the fragile economy.
The expanding US economy added another 151,000 jobs in August, according to the US Labor Department, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.9%. The number of extra jobs was sharply down from an upwardly revised July figure of 275,000. It was also a smaller rise than the average monthly increase of 204,000 seen during the previous 12 months.
United States Federal Reserve officials believed last month that near-term risks to the U.S. economy had subsided and that an interest rate increase could soon be warranted. But they did not indicate when they would likely raise rates.
The United States economy grew at a much slower pace than expected in the second quarter and GDP was revised down in the first three months of the year. The world's largest economy grew at an annual rate of 1.2% in the three months to June, far below forecasts of 2.6%, Growth for the first quarter was revised down from 1.1% to 0.8%.
The United States Federal Reserve on Thursday left key interest rates untouched but acknowledged improved economic performance, suggesting a rate increase may be on the horizon in 2016.
The British pound dropped to a two-month low and the yen rallied Monday as jittery investors shifted into safer assets on worries about Britain's possible exit from the European Union. The flight to lower-yielding investments came as Asian stock markets plunged, with dealers awaiting meetings this week of the US and Japanese central banks.
United Stated Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said a UK vote to leave the European Union could have significant economic repercussions. In a speech this week, she said a Brexit was one factor that the central bank would consider when deciding whether to raise interest rates. The Fed next meets on 14-15 June.