The most prominent driver of oil prices over the next two years is not likely to come from OPEC, Iran or Venezuela, but rather in the shape of a shipping revolution, analysts have warned. New rules coming into force in approximately 18 months' time are seen as a source of great concern for some of the world's biggest oil producers.
Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
Venezuela’s oil production is running 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) short of its historic output but it is something that the country must address itself, Ecuador oil minister Carlos Perez said. Caracas should address the shortfall on its own, added Perez on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
Oil prices rose early on Monday ahead of a meeting between OPEC and U.S. shale firms in Houston, raising expectations that oil producers would discuss further how to clear a global oil glut. Oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other global oil players are set to gather in Houston as CERAWeek, the largest energy industry conference, begins on Monday.
Venezuela's state-run PDVSA has reduced crude sales to its U.S. refining unit Citgo Petroleum while increasing supply to Russia's Rosneft, following a plan signed in May to catch up on overdue deliveries, according to PDVSA documents, sources from the company and its joint ventures.
The members of Mercosur trade bloc called for an end to violence in Venezuela in a joint statement on Friday. However again opinions were divided: while Brazil and Argentina sponsored a more explicit warning to President Nicolas Maduro and his regime, Uruguay had it redrafted in a more conciliatory tone and Paraguay finally came out with a compromise option.
OPEC's coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oil prices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. But resurging U.S. shale has been capping the upside, and Brent has not breached US$58 per barrel. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oil prices will remain below US$60 this year.
Iran rejected on Tuesday an offer from Saudi Arabia to limit its oil output in exchange for Riyadh cutting supply, dashing market hopes the two major OPEC producers would find a compromise this week to help ease a global glut of crude.
The next OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June will act as little more than a forum for continued altercations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The 2 June 2016 OPEC meeting will be held amid a backdrop of oil prices near $50 per barrel, a sharp drop in Nigerian production due to sabotage, turmoil in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia operating with a new oil minister, and Iran aggressively pumping close to pre-sanction levels.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino will visit Russia, Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia on a tour of OPEC and non-OPEC countries intended to drum up support for action to stem the tumble in crude prices.