The Brazilian Central Bank on Wednesday raised its inflation estimate for 2015 to 9%, or almost double the midpoint in the official range and well above the 6.5% top end target, and said the economy may contract by 1.1% this year, marking the worst performance since 1990.
Economic activity in Brazil tumbled in the first quarter and unemployment climbed to a near four-year high, adding to signals that a looming recession could worsen as President Dilma Rousseff reins in public spending.
Brazil's central bank expects inflation to run above the official target this year and next, despite months of monetary tightening, signaling policymakers could maintain an aggressive pace of interest-rate hikes to lower stubborn prices. In the minutes of its April 29 rate-setting meeting, the bank said it would remain vigilant to ease persistently high inflation.
As was anticipated and in line with the current anti-inflation policy, Brazil's central bank on Wednesday evening announced the increase of the basic Selic interest rate another 50 points to 13.25% from 12.75%. The decision from the nine-member Monetary Committee was unanimous, according to the official release.
Analysts have reviewed negatively Brazil's 2015 inflation and growth forecasts, according to the latest Focus report from the Central Bank, released on Monday. The survey which includes 100 analysts from private financial institutions on the state of the economy anticipates inflation of 8.25% and 1.1% contraction of GDP by the end of the year.
BNP Paribas said in Sao Paulo that it expects Brazil's gross domestic product to shrink 2% this year, or double the contraction the French financial services company had projected one quarter ago.
Brazil's economy will contract 0.5% in 2015 and inflation will climb to 7.9%, ending the year far outside the tolerance range, the Central Bank admitted on Thursday in its latest quarterly inflation report.
Brazil's central bank announced on Tuesday it will not extend its currency intervention program past March 31 as a combination of political problems at home and fears of higher U.S. interest rates push the Real near its lowest levels in a decade. The bank will, however, roll over all swaps expiring after May 1.
Brazil's Central Bank appears likely to continue raising interest rates in the short-term, saying in its most recent meeting that its inflation-fighting effort in recent months has been insufficiently effective. The view was reflected in the minutes, published on Thursday, of its monetary policy committee's March 4 meeting, when the bank raised its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50 basis points to 12.75%.
Brazil’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 12.75% Wednesday, the highest level since 2009, as it struggles to get price increases under control amid sluggish economic growth and deepening political turmoil.